Wednesday, January 19, 2011

What Great Chess Players Can Teach Investors


Does your investing style match any of these 3 Grandmasters?
It strikes me the constant iterative calculation of risk and reward that each chess move requires should translate well in to the investing world.
With this in mind, let's look at a few world champions and see how their style matches up to various investment styles. It will be interesting to hear from fellow investors and see which chess players they think they resemble. Trust me, this is not as batty as it seems!

Tigran Petrosian

Tigran Petrosian (not to be confused with his young namesake) is my favourite player and widely regarded as the greatest defensive player in history.
Petrosian's style is characterised by risk aversion first and an incredible patience in waiting to exploit any errors by his opponent. He preferred to quietly develop behind closed positions and sought to cramp his rival's development at every opportunity. Board position was so important to him that he often made sacrifices in order to gain positional advantage.
Paul Keres once said "Petrosian was a player who spent more time considering his opponent's possibilities than his own."
So the Petrosian investor thinks about risk, risk, risk. When he looks at a company, he is always focusing on trying to foresee and avoid the negatives while also strengthening the underlying strategic position. This type of investor will tend to miss out on stellar gains but should avoid disastrous blowups.
However, if you are willing to make sacrificial investments in order to suit the overall plan, hedging and diversifying should come naturally, as they help contain overall risk.
One criticism of Petrosian was that his approach tended to make him draw too many games through lack of initiative. Similarly, the Petrosian investor will spend a lot of time looking at situations and avoiding them because of risk aversion. However, they will wait until the price is right and then move to take advantage.
I think this game is very instructive of Petrosian's style.

Anatoly Karpov

Karpov is a former world champion and great rival of Garry Kasparov. In a similar vein to Petrosian, he preferred closed positional play to the uncertainty of open tactical battle.
Karpov said of his style that:
"the game may be continued in two ways: one of them is a beautiful tactical blow that gives rise to variations that don't yield to precise calculation; the other is clear positional pressure that leads to an endgame with microscopic chances of victory.... I would choose the latter without thinking twice. If the opponent offers keen play I don't object; but in such cases I get less satisfaction, even if I win, than from a game conducted according to all the rules of strategy with its ruthless logic."
Karpov sought to eliminate uncertainty and gradually work out a strategic plan that involved total control of the game.
A Karpov investor will seek to make money across all market conditions and not look to take risk unnecessarily. But they would be more aggressive than Petrosian and take more initiative in seeking to impose their overall strategy.
One downside of Karpov's approach could be that, should his opponent disrupt his overall plan, it is questionable as to how he would be able to react. Nevetheless, if a Karpov investor gets his investment approach correct, he will find it a lot easier to keep replicating results.
I think they would prefer a mechanical based approach that did away with too much discretionary decision making. If it goes wrong, they just look to adjust the system.
There's a good example of Karpov's play here.

Mikhail Tal

Tal's style was relentless attack, relying on intuitive thrusts that created open tactical battles. He would deliberately open up novel and complex positions, in order to intimidate and crush his rivals.
Naturally, this would create imperfection in his play, but few could match his calculative speed or skill. Although this style is seen as risky, Tal has the best record in chess Olympiads and only lost twice in 101 games.
A Tal investor is an archetypal trader, relying on gut feel and instinct to make decisions. He is not worried about the odd loss as the imposition of his style means he will have more winners than losers. Tal investing is all about calculated risk and having the confidence and courage to take initiative whilst unsafe in the knowledge that you are in uncertain territory. Trading against Tal would not be fun!
He said "later, I began to succeed in decisive games. Perhaps because I realised a very simple truth: not only was I worried, but also my opponent".
Tal's play can be seen here.
Which one are you?

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